Mishaal … Go To Riyadh
|Wednesday, June 27,2007 00:00|
|By Muhammad Abu roman*|
It seems that matters in Palestinian territories is moving towards utter deterioration and complexity in course of time especially under the huge reports and studies where any one observing the American, Israeli and Arab stance might get bewildered. It is hard in many times to check the accuracy of these reports, or doubt their formality whether belonging to the state or political elites within the states, but what is clear that the Palestinian status is moving towards more complexity.
Hamas was active in justifying its coup and claiming it to be a "preventive blow" or a self defense against the attempts of quelling the movement and liquidating its leaders through Muhammad Dahlan and his team. We can check these information in many editorials written by the Egyptian famous writer Fahmy Huaidi in many popular newspapers especially his Editorial "what is ongoing on Gaza" where he wonders at the beginning of the article whether what happened in Gaza was a coup or an attempt to foil the coup? He explored the British, German, and Israeli press beside the Palestinian reports where he concluded that Hamas carried out a compulsory act to block the way before Fattah carries out a topple along with regional and international supports.
In accordance to Hamas’s viewpoint, this coup was for security considerations and not for political ones. In other words, the main targets was maintaining the security of Gaza and maintaining social satisfaction among n people of Gaza who were torn between suffering the security absence and the factional fighting from one hand, and the fears of extirpating the movement from another hand. The main Target for Hamas is restart dialogue with Fattah but not before extirpating the sources of troubles in Gaza.
However, what is not said in Hamas’s viewpoint, according to my evaluation, is mimicking the model of Hezbollah in South of Lebanon. In other words, it seeks establishing a political and social base for it in Hamas in Gaza and to count on the logistic and financial support rom Iran and Syria and may be some institutions in the Gulf, and this would be, according to Hamas’s conception a mimic for the model of Hezbollah.
If we supposed, that Hamas’ statements is true , and I will not discuss it, although it is hard to rely on their reports and information, and let’s suppose that Hamas’s resolution was inevitable, and let’s neglect speaking about the serious acts perpetrated in the moments of topple by the movement, however, the most persistent question: what next, Is the problem solved or the situation aggravated more and moved towards the abyss?!
Hamas is betting on limited and clear assumptions, firstly on the financial and logistic support from Iran secondly: on the role of the intervention played by "one Arab state" and Israel in order to keep Israel from cutting electricity and water from Gaza strip in return for guaranteeing that Hamas would not launch attacks against Israel especially trough launching Al-Qassam missiles, thirdly to depend on the Arab intervention to open dialogue between Fattah and Hamas but not before recognizing the current situation and the control of Hamas over Gaza strip.
But what would happen if the "Hamasist" bets failed?
When Hamas assumed control over Gaza, which is not a dream for any one due to the overpopulation and the deterioration of political and social life besides the high rates of unemployment, poverty and overcrowdness, and the complete dependence on Israel to provide them with the daily necessities of life; a certain current in Israel, America, Palestine and Arab countries emerged to call for extirpating Hamas from Gaza through weakening it politically, economically, securely and in return provide West bank and Abbas with supports and the result is the cloning of two Palestinian models: the first represents a liberal status (in West Bank) and the second (a failing fundamentalist model) in Gaza where containing it and practicing measures against it would lead to its explosion interiorly.
However, there are many debates that spoke about the Arab and Regional guardianship, for example, Ayan Primer in Herald Tribune wrote,
“West Bank and Jordan: old plan with attraction”. He argued about the advantages and disadvantages for Jordanian Confederation with West Bank and how many figures regard it.
Regardless of any debates, potentialities or approaches; there is a new reality that appeared on surface, the most important things in which are two matters: first, Israel intensified its propaganda moaning the absence of a Palestinian partner, thus, the issue of a Palestinian state became extinguished and now, it is trying to separate between West Bank, and Gaza strip and separate its approach in dealing with them. Moreover, Fattah movement is not ready now after the recent developments to be involved in talks about “common government”.
Secondly; what Hamas made in Gaza means that it has put its future and the future of Gaza in the hands of Israel, because there is a current bet that Israel would not deprive Gaza from main services like electricity and water and would not close crossing points and would not stand in the face of the Palestinian labor, but what would happen if there is another Israeli opinion?! that might have an international support where Hamas now is seems to be bound by the decisions of Israel whether to keep the fragile Hamas government in Gaza or to extirpate it as if it is “an Iranian developed Strategic base”- according to the opinion of many Israelis.
The main dilemma is comparing the state of (Gaza-Hamas) with the state of (South Lebanon-Hezbollah) is untrue, completely, because from a geostrategic view, although both factions are backed by Iran and “some Qatari supports”, yet South Lebanon is not based on Israel and Israel’s views about it is different from Hamas and Gaza, thus betting on the Iranian alliance would come to a serious end, if not committing suicide!
Okay, if we were in the position of Hamas and decision making, at the same time there are reports that assure the presence of plans to liquidate the movement, and the only choice for Hamas is “to protect Gaza”, tehn we had to take a decision?
I assume that betting on Iran in the case of Gaza, is strategically is untrue, and there should be an alternative that would represent a horizon for Hamas and a nexus between the movement and the world, so Hamas would not find any alternative in this clouded future but Riyadh. The solution is that Hamas would go to Riyadh and to put its papers on the Saudi table and to include all evidence, documents and analyses, beside re-coordinating with Saudi, within the context of the developing new role in the region, yet it may be the only hope for Gaza and the Palestinian in this dilemma.
Of course, not all solutions are in the hands of Riyadh but it would be keen on the interest of Palestinians and has good ties with the Islamic- Sunni project, and would help Hamas in overcoming the current stalemate.