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![]() Woes of inflation and succession in Egypt
Political risk is rising on the banks of the Nile. Egypt’s inflation rate has trebled in the past year to 20 per cent, triggering the worst wave of street protests and worker riots since an enraged mob torched the heart of Cairo in the late 1940’s, forcing the withdrawal of British colonial troops and the demise of King Farouk’s dynasty and its feudal Pashacracy.
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Saturday, July 12,2008 04:51 | |||||||||
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Political risk is rising on the banks of the Even though Worker riots in Yet the current wave of political protests are on a vastly bigger scale than those organised by the ineffectual opposition parties after the 2005 Presidential election won by President Hosni Mubarak, the Soviet trained, air force general who has now ruled the most populous nation in the Arab world for 27 years. The Egyptian economy"s inflation angst has grim political resonance because Gemal Mubarak, the son of the President, is the eminence grise of the Cabinet of reformist technocrats, headed by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. I was genuinely impressed by Gemal Mubarak, a former international banker and a policy wonk extraordinaire. His command of Egyptian economic deregulation was encyclopedic during a presentation he gave us at an investment conference in Sharm al Sheikh. While Gemal Mubarak denies he has any interest in the presidential succession, the fact remains that Hosni Mubarak will be 84 when his current term ends and has not settled rumours of a Syrian style dynastic transfer of power with the appointment of a Vice-President. If hyperinflation destroys The military has ruled Even though Gemal Mubarak does not control the price of wheat, cement, steel or crude oil, his liberal economic policies could be blamed for the inflation nightmare, the bread riots, the chasm between the ostentatiously rich elite and the 30 million citizens who barely survive on $1 day and the President"s freeze on the democratic agenda, symbolized by the jailing of Ayman Nour, the founder of Kefaya and a potential rival for the succession. Moreover, Gemal has a powerful constituency in the ruling NDP, the armed forces, the secular intelligence and Coptic/Muslim business elite who are terrified of a future Muslim Brotherhood government. Gemal is also popular in the palaces of the Arabian Gulf and the White House and Economic reforms will be the immediate victim of a contested succession or an election victory for the Brotherhood. After all, when Hosni Mubarak allowed multiparty presidential elections after intense pressure from the White House in 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood won 20 per cent of the seats for the People"s Assembly, the lower house of Parliament and its candidates won half all seats they contested. The regime has banned the Brotherhood, jailed its leaders and ideologues, whose vision of an Islamic state terrifies the secular elite, It is even possible that Apart form mainstream Islamist opponents like the political heirs of Hassan al Banna and Sayyid Qutb (hanged by Nasser for subversion in 1966), This is the reason Hamas"s seizure of power in It is significant that despite the Israeli blockade of Above all, Anwar Sadat became anathema to Khomeinist A new Middle East cold war now pits revolutionary After all, Hosni Mubarak boycotted the Arab summits in Matein Khalid is Dubai-based investment banker and analyst
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Posted in Other Opinions |
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